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Dynamic Worldwide Metro Vehicle Market Even in Times of Crisis: Current Market Volume at Historical Peak – Further Growth Driven by New Development and Upgrade Projects in Asia
[26.04.2010] The metro vehicle market is still on the advance. The current market volume amounts to around EUR 5.4 billion for new procurements and is at its highest level ever. It is worth noting that almost twice as many vehicles were procured between 2006 and 2010 as in the past period covered. The market for metro vehicles is currently undoubtedly at a historical peak. Starting from this high level, the market will grow moderately between 2 and 3% p.a. The importance of after-sales services will also grow rapidly in line with the fast speed at which fleets are increasing.
The development of metropolitan areas is a key driver for the market. Their number is increasing continually and their average size also continues to grow. The metro systems have grown together with the cities. In 2010, there are 139 metro systems in operation worldwide: in 2000 there were only 107 and in 1990 only 84 in operation. Moreover, existing systems have been and will be constantly expanding. The growth potential for the future new development of metro systems will remain enormous, because around 160 metropolises have no metro system. These metropolises are mainly in Asia and Africa/Middle East.
At the end of 2009, just above 9 000 km of metro networks were in operation. In the base case scenario, SCI Verkehr expects that around 3 500 km of additional line will be put into operation by 2015 compared to 2009 and a further 2 400 km by 2020. Whilst metro projects in Europe predominantly focus on extending existing lines, Asia has in contrast experienced a real metro boom in recent years. The growth of the metro vehicle market will predominantly be created by Asia, specifically by China, followed by India.
The demand structure for metro vehicles is much more specific (e.g. track gauge, platform height, signalling technology, equipment and design requirements) than for standard-gauge railways. Economies of scale to reduce costs are difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, there are high security and quality requirements. The metro vehicle market is therefore dominated by a few international providers.
Alstom, Bombardier, Siemens as well as Japanese manufacturers such as Kawasaki have traditionally dominated the world market. They have recently been joined by the Chinese manufacturers CNR and CSR, who, as newcomers, provide considerably lower prices: The average price of a metro car from CNR and CSR is at around 65% of the average Western price. Due to the high demand on the Chinese domestic markets, CNR has already achieved second place and CSR fifth place in terms of worldwide market shares.
Consulting company SCI Verkehr GmbH, which specialises on the field of railway technology and logistics, has analysed the current size, structure and players of the worldwide metro vehicle markets, and developed forecasts for the coming five years. The complete study “Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends” is available now. |
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